Background  Seven out of ten hornbill species in the Philippines are threatened with extinction. Among these is the endangered Visayan Hornbill (Penelopides panini), found on the islands of Panay and Negros. Threatened by habitat loss and hunting, its population size is thought to have declined from 1800 individuals 20 years ago to less than 1000. However, a recent study on Negros estimated 3564 individuals across three core forest blocks. This study aims to quantify the Visayan Hornbill population size in and around the Northwest Panay Peninsula Natural Park (NWPPNP) on Panay, the largest contiguous low-elevation forest landscape remaining across its range, and its broad habitat associations across a gradient of environmental degradation.

Methods  Hornbills were surveyed using 10-min distance sampling point counts (n=367) along transects (average length 1.1 km). Environmental variables were recorded along transects, while habitat was classified into primary forest, secondary forest, plantation, or open habitat. Distance software was used to estimate population densities stratified by habitat, with the overall population estimate taken as a mean of habitat density estimates weighted by habitat area. Using generalized linear mixed models, hornbill occurrence was modelled using combinations of nine environmental variables as main and two-way fixed effects.

Results  Surveys covered 204.4 km² of the 374.8 km² Northwest Panay Peninsula. Hornbills were not recorded in plantations or open habitats. Hornbill density was significantly higher in primary forest (17.8 individuals/km²±26.9% CV) than in secondary forest (3.7 individuals/km²±33.2% CV; z=15.212, P < 0.001). The overall population estimate for the NWPPNP and environs is 2109 individuals, and 2673 individuals for the entire Northwest Panay Peninsula. Hornbill presence was best explained by a model including distance from the Park boundary alongside five interaction effects and transect as a random effect. Distance, and the interaction between distance and medium-sized trees were significant predictors of hornbill presence.

Conclusions  Our study evidences the habitat preference of the Visayan Hornbill, highlights the importance of the NWPPNP for the species' conservation, and provides strong evidence for re-assessing the global population size.